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Castro has stepped aside. Castro is in charge.
No, this isn’t a non-committal lead or some schizophrenic hallucination.
Fidel Castro has relinquished his grip on power that has spanned five decades. The highly likely successor will be his younger brother, Raul, who has been the de facto head for a year and a half since Fidel took ill.
In the early years of Castro’s reign, the United States cut diplomatic relations with Cuba and levied a trade embargo against the island nation. A product of this embargo was that Americans could not legally travel to Cuba – technically, they were not allowed to spend money in Cuba.
Ever since, Cuba has remained a land of mystery to many Yanks, with the taboo of the travel ban being of great appeal to some. Despite repeated proposals by minority factions in Congress and rumblings here and there, the embargo and travel ban have stuck through the administrations of nine US presidents. In order to repeal the Helms-Burton Act, which specifically states that the embargo will stay so long as a Castro leads Cuba, it would take either the death of both Castro brothers or a total revolt.
And thus, despite the rumours and sentiments that perhaps now is the time for the travel ban to be lifted, it spears unlikely that this will happen in the near future.
Still, we can talk about what will happen when…
The first step following the end of the ban will be the major cruise lines quickly negotiating port visits in Havana, Santiago, and elsewhere. They’ve already got the waters and harbours chartered, it is said, and are perched at the doorstep to enter. Expect to see sailings from Florida calling on Cuba within six months of the ban lifting.
American Airlines, with its hub at Miami International Airport, is also well positioned to enter the market. It has already been running charter flights for those licensed to visit Cuba (family, journalists, humanitarian, etc). Airports in the major cities as well as at the resorts of Varadero, Cayo Coco etc. will see a fairly rapid increase in traffic. Hopefully customs and immigration, known to take their time, will be able to keep up.
For a city of its size and stature, Havana does not have a large hotel infrastructure. It is for this reason as well that cruises will be a no-brainer as a first step. Nonetheless, Americans will want to come here and see what they’ve been missing. The short-term effect in the hotel market will be increasing demand driving up prices. Eventually more hotels will be built, in Havana certainly, and possibly more in Varadero and the other resort areas as well.
If total “regime change” were to take place, as the US government would like to see, the opening to US tourists could be swift and dramatic. In the more likely case where the Castros are gone but the Communists are still running the show, some attempt would probably be made by the Cuban government to insulate the people from American influences.
At the moment, the large majority of Canadians and Europeans visit Cuba on package holidays, staying at all-inclusive resorts in areas inaccessible to everyday Cubans. This is the ideal scenario for the government, who can keep professing socialism to its people while collecting hard currency in the hedonistic enclaves that remain separate from the rest of the country.
Such would be the route of preference if a mass influx from across the Strait were to happen. Whether Americans opt for the same style of vacation remains to be seen.
All this, of course, is pure speculation.
When Raul Castro officially takes over in the days to come, expect hard-line speeches from Havana and Washington. Raul and Bush will each want to flex his muscle, while Senators Obama, Clinton, and McCain will be pandering for votes.
In the marathon that is US-Cuba relations, this milepost is hardly the last.
Read the Cuba travelogue from 2007
